Tomorrowism Blog

Roe Effect: Fact or Fiction

I first heard about the Roe Effect from James Taranto over at the Opinion Journal. On March 5 (first item), he said:

Regular readers of this column know that for some time we have been pushing a pet theory about the political effect of abortion. We refer not to the issue of abortion but to the practice, and our theory is that abortion is making America more conservative than it otherwise would be.

We base this on two assumptions. First, that liberal and Democratic women are more likely to have abortions. Second, that children's political views tend to reflect those of their parents--not exactly, of course, and not in every case, but on average. Thus abortion depletes the next generation of liberals and eventually makes the population more conservative. We call this the Roe effect, after Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court's 1973 decision that established a constitutional right to abortion.

Well, it seems the battle has been joined. Dr. Alex Tabarrok claims to disagree, saying that "The reduction in population from abortion is far smaller than the number of abortions." and "Putting things the other way, compensating behavior means that abortion liberalization will reduce the number of births by less than the number of abortions."

Then again, Dr. Tabarrok doesn't really disagree; his final substantive paragraph:

The reduction in births, even though considerably smaller than than the number of abortions, is not distributed randomly across the population so abortion policy can have an impact on things like crime and teenage pregnancy but the number of Democrats and Republicans has got to be one of the least interesting consequences.

That is, Dr. Tabarrok cares that the Roe decision's effect on crime and teen pregnancy; he does not care about the Roe decision's effect on election outcomes.

In all fairness, Dr. Tabarrok did not disagree with Mr. Taranto; he disagreed with a Larry L. Eastland piece. But Dr. Tabarrok also used terms like "embarrassing low", "sad", "degrades", and "pathetic" in addition to "wrong". I harbor no illusions, when it comes to in economics and blogging, Dr. Tabarrok can whoop my bootie. That said, it seems to me that Mr. Eastland is rubber and Dr. Tabarrok is glue.
Alan on 06.30.04 @ 08:51 AM CT [link]

The Antidisestablishment of God

From their What's New page, Snopes refutes an Albert Einstein legend. In the legend;

The professor answered, "If God created everything, then God created evil since evil exists, and according to the principal that our works define who we are then God is evil". The student became quiet before such an answer. The professor was quite pleased with himself and boasted to the students that he had proven once more that the Christian faith was a myth.

What Albert Einstein is purported to say is kind of cool. As is the Snopes page.
Alan on 06.30.04 @ 07:17 AM CT [link]

The State of Politics

The best post I've seen in a while from Mindles E. Dreck:

So for the record:

Both parties are chicken[****] on gay marriage. I don't think the state should have anything to say about it. On the other hand, it's sad to me that anybody thinks state recognition should be important to their own sense of worth. This is what becomes of subsidies (which the legal status of marriage is). They are inherently discriminatory. It's appalling that people think marriage has to be 'defended' with subsidies or other attempts at social engineering.

Free trade is incredibly important to the growth of the world economy and the distribution of wealth to the far corners of the earth. Steel and agricultural subsidies are inexcusable even if the other guys are doing it. These protections simply slow us down and screw the little guy - in Africa or South America, that is.

The FCC's actions are just chilling to free speech. The new fines are restrictively punitive, and create at least the moral hazard of using them to shape political speech.

Bush never saw a spending bill or entitlement he didn't like, all small government rhetoric aside. Descriptions of his spending policy as some kind of fiscal rope-a-dope defy imagination.

I interpret his main point to be that we are so busy demonizing the other side (he spends more time blaming democrats, that's just his situation), we don't have enough time to listen and learn. I agree.
Alan on 06.29.04 @ 09:58 PM CT [link]

Peacenik Prayers

Cox and Forcum has a nice little cartoon about Peacenik prayers.
Alan on 06.28.04 @ 01:26 PM CT [link]

Senator Kerry off again

Having in all three June 22 roll call votes, Senator Kerry apparently left town again today, having cast no recorded votes on June 23.

The closest vote he missed went down 49-49, a partisan effort "To amend title 10, United States Code, to reduce the age for receipt of military retired pay for nonregular service from 60 to 55." President of the Senate Dick Cheney apparently cast the tie breaking vote.

To be honest, it may not be the case that Senator Kerry's presence would have led to the bill's passage. Politicians are known for counting votes and allowing members to change their vote.

• Senator Snowe may have asked the Republican leadership for permission to vote in favor. She might want to vote "aye" to help her buy votes at home in the next election. She would ask for permission; if she upset the leadership, none of her pet projects would gain support, and she'd lose the ability to send home pork. The Republican leadership, knowing that the amendment will fail, grants permission.
  
• Heck, Republican Senators Spectre may have changed his vote to "Aye" just to make the vote appear closer than it actually was in an effort to embarrass Senator Kerry.
  

(Again, I speculate about individual senators here.)

Politics aside, Senator Kerry is being paid to represent Taxachussets. He should be debating and voting and falling asleep just like everyone else's senators.
Alan on 06.23.04 @ 07:13 PM CT [link]

Hitchens on Moore: The Aftermath

At first, I was going to ignore Michael Moore's "documentary", Fahrenheit 9/11. But after finally reading Christopher Hitchens' take on it, I've decided to buy it. Just like Plan 9 From Outer Space, it is so bad, it is good. In a few years, I expect people to be saying, "Michael Moore made a movie opposing President Bush, and liberals loved it!" Wide eyed kids will doubt. I'll feed the Hitchen article into the articulater. Then, when the kids express doubt that any movie could be that bad, I'll pop my dust covered dvd into the 3D projector. Then we'll take turns laughing at this farce and wondering how we ever survived its supporters.
Alan on 06.22.04 @ 08:45 PM CT [link]

Banknote Trivia

From Dr. Cowen, who posed the question differently than me.

Who's face appears on the currency of the most countries? Here are the other 4:

Luminary	Number of Countries
Vladimir Lenin	2
George Washington	4
Simon Bolivar	4
Christopher Columbus	12

My only guess to Dr. Cowen's query was Adam Smith (18th century version). Oh well.

Anyway, the top honoree appears on the bank notes of 32 countries. Click more for the answer.
Alan on 06.22.04 @ 08:09 PM CT [more..]

Media coverage: request or demand?

I was checking out Senate votes and noticed two related bills:
Warner Amdt. No. 3458, As Modified; Expressing the sense of Congress on media coverage of the return to the United States of the remains of deceased members of the Armed Forces from overseas.
Lautenberg Amdt No. 2191, As Modified; To require a protocol on media coverage of the return to the United States of the remains of members of the Armed Forces who die overseas.

Why do Democrats always seem to want to "require a protocol"? I prefer the Republicans approach, those that are "Expressing the sense of Congress". Granted, It was not all the Dems on one side and all the Reps on the other, but these votes are consistent with larger patterns.

But congress has enough to do without micromanaging the press or micromanaging the way the military manages the press. We'd be better off if they'd spend their time devolving power to the states or otherwise shrinking government.
Alan on 06.22.04 @ 07:58 PM CT [link]

Senator Kerry Back

Senator Kerry returned to Washington and actually did the job he's been paid to do. The bills he returned for?

Levin Amdt. No. 3338; To reallocate for Ground-based Midcourse interceptors to homeland defense and combatting terrorism. and Brownback Amdt. No. 3464; To increase the penalties for violations by television and radio broadcasters of the prohibitions against transmission of obscene, indecent, and profane language.

He voted in favor both times; Sen. Levin's amendment went down 56-44; no Republicans voted for. Sen. Brownbback's amendment passed 99-1, Sen. John Breaux of LA being the only dissenter.
Alan on 06.22.04 @ 07:44 PM CT [link]

Google Management Google Bombed II

Earlier I wrote about Google's own Google Bomb.

Well, having no life, I checked my referers log; with my traffic it's easy to keep on top of. And I saw this:

1	Referring URL: http://www.google.com/url?sa=D&start=3&q=http://www.alanmrob
	Jun 21, 2004 08:45:58 PM	Linux	Mozilla 1.3

The strange part, when I click on the link, google redirects me to my post Google Management Google Bombed. To their credit, Google management has not simply vaporized the insulting abuse of their search engine to imply that they are out of touch. Still, I have never seen a Google link do this kind of redirection. I wonder what's happenning behind the scenes?
Addendum-----------------------------------------------------------------------
And now http://www.google.com/search? hl=en&lr=&ie=ISO-8859-1&q=out%20of%20touch%20management%20 http://www.google.com/corporate/execs.html (spaces added manually for line breaks) shows up as a referer. Searching for out of touch management http://www.google.com/corporate/execs.html yields three pages, one of them mine. I suppose all that means is that few people mention the Google site explicitely along side the linked phrase.

Still, perhaps I should be careful. I'd hate to have Google as an enemy. Next thing you know, my traffic will slow to 3-4 visitors a day.
Alan on 06.22.04 @ 12:22 AM CT [link]

Pending Revamp?

A couple of times now, I've caught myself rehashing old news, just because I think it deserves to stay in the foreground. I did it with North Korea, Iraq, and President Clinton. There is a pattern emerging here.

Blogging is fine; it lets me comment on whatever current events I feel like commenting on. But the list of hot topics is rarely the same as the list of most important topics. So I'm tempted to start a slate of semistatic web pages, one for each important topic. A given topic would get a web page if and only if I think it is vital to our future. Each web page would be chock full of links concerning that topic; why it matters, and what we should do.

Topic	Rationale
North Korea	Evil Dictator; WMDs
Iraq	Stop Terrorism; Save Middle East
Cut Taxes	Grow the economy; shrink the government
Cut capital gains tax	Grow the economy; foster innovation
Reform Social Security	Avoid Meltdown; help economy
Health Care Reform	Save Lives
Tort Reform	Grow Economy; Save Lives

I almost put President Clinton's legacy in there, clean government matters. Related is the Florida 2000 election; both have to do with the rule of law as written, not as the biggest mouths think it should be interpreted.

And, of course, there's always my pet, government reform.
Alan on 06.22.04 @ 12:11 AM CT [link]

North Korea Revisited

Via new blog Andjam, former Czech president Vaclav Havel says that

Now is the time for the democratic countries of the world - the European Union, the United States, Japan and last but not least South Korea - to unify under a common position.

Unlike Iraq, North Korea is not sitting on oodles of mineral wealth. Perhaps we can starve them intio submission before they get too many WMDs.

And for those who wonder how we could attack Iraq when North Korea is out there, I hope that North Korea is next. Both regimes are worthy of relegation to the dustbin of history, their leaderships destined to roast in hell like so much overcooked microwave popcorn.
Alan on 06.21.04 @ 07:52 PM CT [link]

Imagery Laced Open Letter to President Bush

From The Mesopotamian:

IN THE NAME OF GOD THE COMPASSIONATE THE MERCIFUL
Dear Mr. President,

Calm seas and easy winds do not test a ship’s worthiness, but it is the tempest and the hurricane that show her true mettle. Strength is measured by the intensity of stress that can be withstood. And here we see you standing like a mountain towering over the raging elements.

And you know Mr. President when the lion marches into the bush, the wild dogs, the monkeys, the hyenas and all the other beasts of the wild scurry and run and hide at a safe distance, some perched high in the trees, others hiding in holes under the ground, and each will find his favorite refuge. Yet they will start their squeaking, screaming, barking, hissing and generally making a deafening din and clamor, while apprehensively and attentively watching every move and gesture of the King in great trepidation. Some of the monkeys might dare toss some coconut shells perhaps in his direction, but from a very safe remoteness, and some parasites, too small and contemptible to be observed might give him a sting or two; but all that cannot bother the great one much. It is the racket and noise though that can be most annoying. But who dares to come within range, for they all know very well what fate awaits them then.

But the great noble ship sails on and on braving the elements, majestic, white sails and white flags of honor fluttering high in the sky, for she is carrying bounty and prizes to far off lands hungry for the great gifts. May God bless her course and her mission and grant her safe journey and triumphant return. Amen.

Makes me wonder how many Iraqis support us but are afraid to say anything.
Alan on 06.21.04 @ 10:26 AM CT [link]

Why we had to invade Iraq

I include this because it is so chock full of links.

Via The Blogging Ceaser, The Fourth Rail details why we had to go after Saddam.

Saddam had to go. 'Unilateral' war was the only way. We are succeeding in Iraq. He adds historical perspective.
Alan on 06.20.04 @ 10:57 PM CT [link]

Binary Math Trick

Prompted by Think Again! and a couple of eight year olds: my favorite math trick.

It involves a number of tables; when I first saw it, each table was on a separate card. One set of tables:

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31		2 3 6 7 10 11 14 15 18 19 22 23 26 27 30 31		4 5 6 7 12 13 14 15 20 21 22 23 28 29 30 31
	8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31		16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

To work the trick, the 'mark' is to pick a number from 1 to 31. Then, they say which tables contain that number. ("Is it on this table?" Yes. "Is it on this table?" No. "Is it on this table?" Yes. "Is it on this table?" Yes. "Is it on this table?" No.) After finishing, the 'Magician' confidently announces the number. (In the above example, if the mark's number was on the tables which contained the numbers 1, 4, and 8 but not on the tables which contain 2 and 16, the mark's number would be 13.)

The key to understanding the trick is binary, or base-2 math. Base-10 math is based on our hands. When we write 11. we mean 10, the number of fingers we have, plus 1. "123" is base-10 is 1*10*10 + 2*10 + 3.

Binary was developed by people with two fingers. In binary, when we write "11", we mean 2 + 1. If we were to write "123", we would mean 1*2*2 + 2*2 + 3 or 7.

We wouldn't write 123 in binary though. When we add 1 to the largest digit in base 10, 9, we reset the 9 to 0 and carry the one to the next column (9+1=10). Likewise, when we add 1 to the largest digit in base 2, 1, we reset the 1 to 0 and carry the one to the next column (1+1=10). Counting from one to sixteen in binary: 1, 10, 11, 100, 101, 110, 111, 1000, 1001, 1010, 1011, 1100, 1101, 1110, 1111, 10000. If we were to count to 123 in binary, by the time we got done carrying the ones, we'd have 1111011.

Anyway, knowing how binary works lets us describe the numbers on the individual cards. The first card can be described as XXXX1. That is, all the numbers on the first card can be expressed as five digit binary numbers. If number appears on the first card, the last digit of the number expressed in binary is 1 (it is an odd number). As it happens, all odd numbers appear on the first card.

The second card can be described as XXX1X; the third card, XX1XX; the fourth card, X1XXX; and the fifth card as 1XXXX.

So when the 'magician' asked the 'mark' if the number was on cards 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5; the magician was really asking the mark to express the number in binary. In the above example, "YNYYN" read backwards becomes "NYYNY"; replacing yesses and noes with ones and zeroes, we get 01101, the binary representation of 13.

When I teach this trick to 8 year olds, I first make up some cards. Then I do the trick. Then I teach them the trick. I tell them to keep a running total of the numbers in the upper left hand corners of the cards which have a 'mark's particular number. Or, in the above example, "Is your number here?" "Yes" Upper Left:1. Running total: 1. "Is your number here?" "No" Running total: 1. "Is your number here?" "Yes" Upper Left:4. Running total: 5. "Is your number here?" "Yes" Upper Left:8. Running total: 13. "Is your number here?" "No" Final answer: 13.

I like this trick for kids for three reasons. First, they like it; they can mystify their friends. Second, it gets them doing math. Third, it plants an 'aha' moment; at some point in the future, they will come to understand binary math and say "aha".
Alan on 06.20.04 @ 08:17 PM CT [link]

Close Election

The Blogging Ceaser has posted an eye-popping (good thing I can touch type) update to his Election Projection page. Where Senator Kerry had been substantially ahead by as much as 337-201 electoral votes, he now shows an even race. What really caught my eye: Florida to Bush by a 0.01% margin.
Alan on 06.20.04 @ 06:06 PM CT [link]

President Clinton Loses his Cool

Via Drudge, President Clinton lost his cool:

[...]
The President initially responds to [BBC interviewer David] Dimbleby's questions by launching a general attack on media intrusion. When the broadcaster persists with the question of whether the politician was truly penitent, Clinton directs his anger towards Dimbleby.

The atmosphere, which was initially warm, then turns decidedly chilly. One BBC executive who has seen the interview, which took place in a New York hotel last Wednesday, said: "He is visibly angry with Dimbleby's line of questioning and some of that anger gets directed at Dimbleby himself. As outbursts go, it is not just some flash that is over in an instant. It is something substantial and sustained.

"It is memorable television which will give the public a different insight into the President's character. It will leave them wondering whether he is as contrite as he says he is about past events. Dimbleby manages to remain calm and order is eventually restored."

First the New York Times pans his book Pretentious Blather. Then the BBC casts doubt on his honesty. Is this the beginning of some sort of unravelling?
Alan on 06.20.04 @ 05:55 PM CT [link]

Biden Politics

What's wrong with politics: this recent roll call vote "To provide funds for the security and stabilization of Iraq by suspending a portion of the reduction in the highest income tax rate for individual taxpayers."

Either we should alter the tax structure or we should not. Either we should support the troops or we should not. But this amendment is just a political ploy to let Democrats claim they supported the troops when Republicans did not.

Except, of course, for Senator Kerry. He did not vote.
Alan on 06.20.04 @ 05:34 PM CT [link]

European Elections unspun

Via Natalie Solent, the Chicago Boyz (no, they don't make pitchforks with their hands) reprint an analysis from Jim Bennett:

The entirely predictable but still breathtakingly brazen spin of the US liberal media on the British European elections continues to demonstrate the need for alternative channels of information, particularly the blogosphere.

I just heard NPR describe the election results as "British voters punishing Blair over Iraq", echoing the Washington Post and NY Times. This has become the official line. Any sane editor would choose to lead with a headline grounded in actual factual analysis, such as:

"Three Pro-War British parties take 67% of vote, push anti-war party to fourth place"; or

"New anti-EU party displaces Liberal Democrats as Britain's Third Party"; or

"British Voters Back War but Punish Blair over Europe"; or

"BBC Host Fired for Political Incorrectness Leads Europe Rebels to Victory"; or

"Liberal Democrats Play Anti-War Card with Meager Results; or

"Britain: Only European Country with Pro-War Government *and* opposition party, now sees rise of third pro-war party, eclipsing antiwar party." or

"Euroskeptic Parties Take Majority of Vote for First Time."

All of these are factually true and would seem interesting angles purely from a journalistic point of view. Did we see any of them? Ha!

The really interesting thing about this election was [....]

Alan on 06.20.04 @ 05:27 PM CT [link]

Gee, Your Glare Smells Terriffic!

Why bother excerpting?

What will they think of next?
Alex Tabarrok

I kid you not, this lightbulb freshens the air.
The outside of the bulb is coated with titanium dioxide which is
activated by fluorescent light producing oxidizers that break down
odors. Buy from Amazon here. Thanks to Kevin Kelly's Cool Tools for the link.

June 20, 2004 at 07:45 AM in Web/Tech | Permalink | TrackBack (0)

Alan on 06.20.04 @ 05:12 PM CT [link]

Poker, per Dave Barry

Via Wil Wheaton, of all places, Dave Barry writes about poker:

All of these games are essentially the same: A person (or, in poker slang, "dealer") gives you some cards ("cards"), which you look at in a furtive manner ("sneaking a gander") to see if you have a good hand ("bling bling") after which you bet ("kiss the eel") by placing money ("cheese") into the pot ("marijuana"). This goes on until somebody ("not you") wins, at which point the losers express heartfelt congratulations in colorful slang.

If I ever invote you over for a game of poker, it would be proper of you to ask, "do I look like a charity case?"
Alan on 06.20.04 @ 05:03 PM CT [link]

Clinton's Book Panned

Via Michelle Malkin, New York Times (registration required) reviewer Michiko Kakutani pans President Clinton's new memior, which I would Google Bomb as Pretentious Blather.

The book, which weighs in at more than 950 pages, is sloppy, self-indulgent and often eye-crossingly dull — the sound of one man prattling away, not for the reader, but for himself and some distant recording angel of history.

In many ways, the book is a mirror of Mr. Clinton's presidency: lack of discipline leading to squandered opportunities; high expectations, undermined by self-indulgence and scattered concentration. This memoir underscores many strengths of Mr. Clinton's eight years in the White House and his understanding that he was governing during a transitional and highly polarized period. But the very lack of focus and order that mars these pages also prevented him from summoning his energies in a sustained manner to bring his insights about the growing terror threat and an Israeli-Palestinian settlement to fruition.

Alan on 06.20.04 @ 04:50 PM CT [link]

Muslim Brotherhood

Via a href="http://michellemalkin.com/archives/000060.htm">Michelle Malkin, the Muslim Borotherhood is scary:

Which, if you think about it, is a pretty brilliant strategy: Create terrorist groups that use violence to advance your goals, distance yourself from those groups, present yourself as the "reasonable" alternative, and enjoy the accolades of the very people you're trying to destroy.

Not bad for day's work. Or even several decades.

Alan on 06.20.04 @ 04:42 PM CT [link]

Think Again! Blog

Via Dr. Tabarrok, the blog Think Again!

I remember reading about some MENSA people describing math puzzles may be thought of as mental masturbation. I disagree. Problems such as determining the best speed use skills which can be applied to other areas. Further, as the commentary shows, there is something to be learned in arguing about the assumptions.
Addendum--------------------------------------------------------
I hope I don't grow hair on my palms. I'm about done reading the entire blog and doing all the problems. I'll be back.
Alan on 06.19.04 @ 08:42 PM CT [link]

Abu Ghraib, Saddam Style

Via Command Post, a National Review story about a video of Abu Ghraib torture under Saddam.

I downloaded the video. Having read the description, I'm not sure I can watch it. But I'll be sure to remember that I have it whenever anyone tries to morally equicate our actions to those of Saddam's 'people'.

And recall, Saddam's people are still running around in Iraq, shooting at our soldiers and intimidating everyday Iraqis. I'm not sure that any of our difficulties compare.
Alan on 06.19.04 @ 08:03 PM CT [link]

Google Management Google Bombed

From Jane Galt, Google has been Google Bombed. Searching for "out of touch management" yields http://www.google.com/corporate/execs.html, which is what it seems.

How will Google respond? When it came to Google Bombing "Jew", they said they don't override their algorithms unless legally compelled:

"We find this result offensive, but the objectivity of our ranking function prevents us from making any changes," said David Krane, a Google spokesman. Google makes exceptions to this hands-off policy only in instances where the content of a site is illegal (e.g. child pornography, pedophilia forums).

It will be interesting to see how they respond to this one.
Alan on 06.17.04 @ 05:05 PM CT [link]

Yesterday's News: Clinton Disbarred

Just a reminder; President Clinton chose not to contest his disbarment from the U.S. Supreme Court. I am not sure if Clinton can now legally practice law in Arkansas; it seems he accepted a five year suspension of his law license. I had a hard time researching the issue.

Still, don't believe anyone that says the President was railroaded. He broke the law in ways that matter to ethical lawyers.
Alan on 06.17.04 @ 02:49 PM CT [link]

Michelle Malkins Discredits the Wall Street Journal

That wonderful journalist, Michelle Malkin, says that The Wall Street Journal editorial page is dishonest in its support of immigration and unfair to those (such as herself) that disagree, to the detriment of national security. And she does a good job of backing it up.

BTW, dishonest is my characterization, not hers.
Alan on 06.17.04 @ 02:13 PM CT [link]

My first $100 disk(?)

Just saw, via gnat23, that my copy of Duck Soup is selling for $58-$119 (my disk has a minor scratch and a pristine case).

Just in case anyone cares.
Alan on 06.17.04 @ 12:26 AM CT [link]

Google Calculator

This I get, even if I don't understand the underlying intricacies. This baffles me.

Thanks to zsquirrelboy and fenqshui for the links.
Alan on 06.17.04 @ 12:07 AM CT [link]

Electronic voting

I'm all for electronic voting, but so far, I'm against Diebold systems. They don't seem to be implementing secure, verifiable systems.

The Open Vote foundation seems to be taking the right tack.

Thanks to a Jane Galt discussion for the inspiration.
Alan on 06.16.04 @ 11:48 PM CT [link]

Iraqi Oil Production Halved

I saw at Command Post last night an AP repost that "Authorities curbed oil exports through the Persian Gulf by half - from an average of 1.85 million barrels per day to more than 800,000 barrels - after saboteurs blasted the two pipelines on the Faw peninsula of southern Iraq."

I'm curious why we haven't heard more about this. Is this not the bad news the liberal media likes to parrot? Or is this evidence of terrorist activity they like to ignore?

Anyway, there were a couple of interesting suggestions in the comments. dwc suggested we use landmines. Jeff B suggested we hire U.S. hunters to guard the pipeline.
Alan on 06.16.04 @ 11:32 PM CT [link]

The Pledge of Allegiance

Yes, the Supreme Court recently sidestepped the issue of whether it is ok to include "under God" in the Pledge of Allegiance. Because the father that orginally filed the lawsuit did not have custody of the daughter allegedly harmed, the Supreme Court ruled the case had no merit. (um, not that I'm a lawyer.)

Frankly, I question the Pledge for another reason. According to Bob Wallace, the pledge is socialist in nature:

What kind of man was [presumed Pledge of Allegiance author] Bellamy? He was a Nationalist, a Christian Socialist and a Baptist minister who was driven from his pulpit by a congregation weary of his socialist sermons. (Obviously, congregations had more sense in those days.) Since it is not possible to be a Christian and a socialist, Bellamy was very simply a socialist and a Nationalist (I find disturbing the fact that the phrase "National Socialist" is better known by the word "Nazi.")
[...]
The main purpose of the Pledge of Allegiance was to collectivize impressionable young students. Some might call this "patriotism," but it could equally as well be called "fascism."

Via Portland Indymedia (did I really just link Indymedia?), a link to a link to early pictures of students reciting the pledge. Research via Google.
Alan on 06.16.04 @ 11:04 PM CT [link]

Detroit Defense TShirts

I'm getting a few hits for p[eople searching for Detroit Pistons Department of Defense TShisrts. If anyone finds them, can you post a link or phone number here? I'd like one myself, and it may help others too.
Alan on 06.16.04 @ 10:31 PM CT [link]

Iraqi Poll Results

Via JunkYardBlog; bad news from Iraq; they don't seem to like us, afterall.

WASHINGTON -
President Bush (news - web sites) is fond of telling Americans they have liberated Iraq (news - web sites) and that the country's future generations will be thankful. The current generation, however, overwhelmingly views U.S. forces as occupiers and wishes they would just leave, according to a poll commissioned by the administration.

The poll, requested by the Coalition Provisional Authority last month but not released to the American public, found more than half of Iraqis surveyed believed both that they'd be safer without U.S. forces and that all Americans behave like the military prison guards pictured in the Abu Ghraib abuse photos.
[...]

Commenters note that the polls ignores the Kurds; they love us. Oh, that liberal media notes that a plurality of Iraqis want us to "Leave after a permanent government is elected".
Alan on 06.16.04 @ 06:31 PM CT [link]

Michelle Malkin Blog

Michelle Malkin has a blog, which has a fine jab at the Clintons. It also has a good dressing down of Paul Krugman, replete with eleven links of rebuttal. (Courtesy James Taranto (second item).)
Alan on 06.16.04 @ 06:10 PM CT [link]

Abu Ghraib under Saddam vs. Chicago jails under Dailey

A couple of weeks ago, I spoke to a friend about the war in Iraq. As a Libertarian, he opposes it. He even said that the abuses of Saddam were not all that bad.

He said that he is a former drug user; I believe him. He said that he has been beaten up by cops for not having drugs. He said he psent time in jail, and heard prisoners begging for mercy. He said that Mayor Dailey knows about, and tacitly approves of, this.

On one level, it is hard to draw a distinction. The political leader secretly supports abuse. The political leader cannot be removed politically. People think the abuses are wrong, but won't speak out.

Such comparisons are wrong. Mayor Dailey does keep the city moving; I have complained to the city in the past and gotten quick results (once about a traffic light, once about flooding; both times in a touristy area). Abu Ghraib was horrendous in ways Chicago never has been and never will be. I said it then, I repeat it now. As bad as Chicago cops may be, there is no moral equivilence between us and Saddam.
Alan on 06.16.04 @ 05:53 PM CT [link]

Pistons TShirt idea

I just don't think this would work, cuz not that many people are out in left field with me.

But I'd wear a Pistons tshirt saying "D. Joe D." or "Defense. Joe Defense." The concept is that the Pistons were assembled by Joe Dumars ("Joe D.") and that the Pistons win with defense ("D").
Alan on 06.16.04 @ 05:11 PM CT [link]

Grats to the Pistons

Yeah, the Pistons won last night. It seems anticlimatic.

Still, this is the sunset of this Lakers and Phil Jackson eras; it is the dawn of the new Pistons era.

I don't feel sorry for Malone or Payton, having sacrificed millions of dollars to get a ring with the Lakers. They tried to game the system, and lost. But the precident they have set might help the Pistons. Tracey McGrady wants a ring.
Alan on 06.16.04 @ 05:04 PM CT [link]

www.onlylegitworkathomejobs.com et al

I just got a new email from these folks. This time, they tell me to spend money at www.workathomejobswarehouse.com. It was from Colleen Parker, email route@monster.com.

Also, whilst preparing this (most likely, error filled; I counted by hand) post, I got two emails titled "Your Cheque Has Been Approved!", promising to tell me how to get free money from the government. All I have to do is visit www.workathomejobswarehouse.com. Sigh.

Please note, due to my blog software, there are significant extra linefeeds preceding the table. I do regret the situation; please accept my apologies.

Post Date	Keywords	Link
12 April 2004	www.onlylegitworkathomejobs.com Susan Campbell EMail Exchange	link
24 April 2004	800-841-5939 www.onlylegitworkathomejobs.com	link
26 April 2004	www.onlylegitworkathomejobs.com www.availableworkathomejobs.com	link
27 April 2004	www.onlylegitworkathomejobs.com	link
4 June 2004	www.onlylegitworkathomejobs.com Belk Marketing Services	link
9 June 2004	www.onlylegitworkathomejobs.com www.availableworkathomejobs.com	link
16 June 2004	www.onlylegitworkathomejobs.com www.availableworkathomejobs.com www.workathomejobswarehouse.com www.exclusiveworkathomejobs.com	link

Also, this table of email counts:

date	Count							Other	Links
	Total	Thx	Grats	Wait	Resp	Apply	Out	$$$	OLWAHJ	EWAHJ	AWAHJ	WAHJW	none
6 April	1	1											1
12 April	2		1		1				1				1
13 April	1			1					1
14 April	3			1	2				3
26 April	2		1				1		1				1
27 April	2		2						1	1
28 April	2		2						1	1
29 April	2		1	1					1	1
10 May	2		1				1		1				1
11 May	1		1						1
12 May	1		1						1
13 May	3		2				1		2				1
16 May	2		2						1	1
1 June	1						1						1
2 June	1					1			1
3 June	2					2			2
4 June	3		3						2	1
5 June	1		1						1
6 June	2		2						1	1
7 June	2		1			1			2
8 June	4					4			3	1
9 June	3					3			1	2
10 June	7		2			5			4	3
16 June	4		2					2				4

Explanation of terms:

Thx	They tell me they got my application, they will get back to me
Grats	They tell me I have a well paying job, all I have to do is buy their guide
Wait	They remind me of their 'job offer', exhort me to respond
Resp	I did respond to them once; they responded to my responses
Apply	Jobs are available, buy the guide to apply
Out	Emails telling me to respond to said email if I want to receive job offers from them. I have neverresponded to these emails.
Check Honored	How to get government grants
OLWAHJ	www.onlylegtworkathomejobs
EWAHJ	www.exclusiveworkathomejobs.com
AWAHJ	www.availableworkathomejobs.com
WAHJW	www.workathomejobswarehouse.com
none	No link to money requesting site included.

Oops. www.availableworkathomejobs is an email portal. It has not been used in bodies of emails as a site to waste money.
Alan on 06.16.04 @ 02:36 PM CT [link]

What I dislike about President Bush

From Marginal Revolution, a post about changing the size of government.

There are fifteen major federal agencies and departments. During the past 9 presidential terms, they have all grown twice; once under President Clinton's second term, and during President Bush's current term. And, as Dr. Cowen indicates, this approaches the category of lies, damn lies, and statistics. Quoth he: "This is a highly imperfect proxy, but when you are 0 for 15 it is hard to blame measurement error alone."

The frustrating part is that we can do nothing about it. I do not have faith that Senator Kerry would slow the growth of government, much less enact real cuts.

Anyway, let no one call me some sort of rabidly blind Republican. To me it is principles, not personalities. And Republicans better exemplify the principles I support.
Alan on 06.14.04 @ 11:32 AM CT [link]

Sino Threat

ViaTownhall a Peter Brookes editorial in the N.Y. Post, quotes defenselink.mil as saying that China is a silent but growing threat:

[....]
China's next military frontier is space, including manned space travel and the development of reconnaissance satellites and anti-satellite lasers capable of destroying intelligence and communications satellites.
[....]
Short term, Beijing's military focus is on unification with Taiwan. Long term, the goals include making Japan strategically subservient and replacing America as the preeminent power in Asia.
[....]

Our huge military advantages on Earth use technology which orbits Earth. We gain much from trade with Asia. We should not ignore China.
Alan on 06.14.04 @ 02:11 AM CT [link]

Top notch Bleat spoof ad

James Lileks always varies his bleats page; not just the content, but the frame, if you will. Today's variation is the best I've seen. It alters an old beer ad.

And the Bleat itself isn't too bad; it uses the term "exsanguinated" in reference to a famously unsolved crime.
Alan on 06.14.04 @ 01:40 AM CT [link]

Cool Search

Now that you mention it, this would make a cool t-shirt.
Addendum-----------------------------------------------------
It seems Kid Rock wore such a tshirt Sunday night.
Alan on 06.14.04 @ 01:18 AM CT [link]

Pistons' depth shows

Box scores from the first four games of the NBA finals:

		1st		2nd		3rd		4th		O.T.		ESPN
1	Detroit		22		18		24		23			link
	at L.A.	19		22		17		17
2	Detroit		16		20		30		23		2	link
	at L.A.	18		26		24		21		10
3	L.A.	16		16		19		17				link
	at Detroit		24		15		24		25
4	L.A.	22		17		17		24				link
	at Detroit		21		20		15		32
L.A.Total		2		3		1		0		1
Det.Total			2		1		3		4		0

To keep things confusing, I have two columns for each quarter, one for each team. The bottom rows indicate how many quarters each team has won. It is not surprising that the Pistons, up three games to one, are up in quarters, 10-7 (I count the overtime session as a separate quarter).

What I was not surprised to see was that the Pistons have outscored the Lakers in all four fourth quarters and in three out of four third quarters. The Lakers did best earlier in games, winning five of eight first half quarters. The anomoly here is that the Lakers won the series' only overtime session. Perhaps the Lakers were hopped up on adreniline high enough to survive the last five minutes.

Anyway, I post this to support my contention that the Pistons are beating the Lakers with their depth. That the Pistons are wearing down the Lakers. Thus, the Pistons gain a comparitive edge as the games wear on.

If I weren't so lazy, I'd dig up and analyze free throw percentages by quarter. When players get tired, their legs go, and they lose theuir shooting touch. I expect that such an analysis would show that the Lakers are surprisingly inaccurate from the free throw line late in the games.
Alan on 06.14.04 @ 01:13 AM CT [link]

Two Cheers for Senator Kerry

First, Senator Kerry says nice things about the late President Reagan. Now, he differs with an Australian plan to withdraw troops from Iraq. No, I'm not going to vote for him; I still don't trust him. But it's nice to see a leader from the other side actually saying nice things about an ideoogical opponent and disagreeing with an ideological friend. It seems that civility and commitment to the greater good are making a comeback.
Alan on 06.13.04 @ 11:58 PM CT [link]

Boorish Basketball

From Today's Detroit News:

Meanwhile, an unidentified fan’s allegation that Malone poked him in the face before Game 3 was being investigated by police Friday.

And several other fans have made it difficult for the Lakers to get their rest by harassing them in the wee hours at their hotel in nearby Birmingham.

While I believe both claims to be true, I'm more certain that Piston's fans harassed the Lakers at night. Whatever. It is neither appropriate for a player to hit a fan nor for fans to keeps opposing players awake at night by disturbing the peace. Let the Pistons win the old fasioned way: with tenacious "D".
Alan on 06.12.04 @ 01:18 AM CT [link]

Pistons up 2-1

Having routed the Lakers 88-68 in game 3, I'm tempted to call for the Pistons to win in five games. I hesitate, if only for the Laker / Kobe / Coach / Shaq mystique.

But already, something has happened against the Lakers that the Pacers prevented. Darko played.

I'm kinda kicking myself right now. I remember feeling after the Nets series that 'this is it'; kinda like when the USA hockey team beat the Russians in 1980 or after a Dem wins a Chicago primary; the hard part is done, all that is left is the formalities. L.A., knock wood, could be done in 5. Indiana would have gone out in 5, if not for a brilliant lineup change in game 4. It seems that the Pistons turned the corner after losing the triple overtime in game 4 against the Nets.
Alan on 06.11.04 @ 01:21 AM CT [link]

Banned Iraqi Missle Parts Found in Jordan

Via Command Post, Fox News reports that "U.N. weapons experts have found 20 engines used in banned Iraqi missiles in a Jordan scrapyard along with other equipment that could be used to make weapons of mass destruction".

Some argue that this is not proof that Saddam was developing WMDs. Similarly, finding that Sarin shell, those dual use chemicals & factories, uranium yellowcake, and even all that pre-war truck traffic out of Iraq does not convince them.

Please get over it. Saddam is an evil person. We stopped him from doing evil things. Winning some political debate is not justify the contortions required to defend him.
Addendum-----------------------------------------------------------
Murdoc has a much better post.
Alan on 06.10.04 @ 11:17 AM CT [link]

onlylegitworkathomejobs

EMail #43 related to www.onlylegitworkathomejobs.com contained this gem:

BE THE FIRST TO APPLY...THESE WILL BE FILLED ON A FIRST COME BASIS! APPLICATION DEADLINE 06/12/04

I know of no legitimate employers that hire on a strictly "first come basis". It seems that this scammer forgot about his target market.

Previous posts on this subject here, here (includes comment about 800-841-5939), here, here, and most recently here.
addendum------------------------------------------------------------------------
I just got email #44 from jobs@availableworkathomejobs.com. I have also received junk from exclusiveworkathomejobs.com.
Alan on 06.09.04 @ 04:58 PM CT [link]

Go Pistons

I got into some fun arguing with a Lakers fan. I claimed that Detroit's four big men (Wallace, Wallace, Okur, and Darko; I didn't mention Williamson) would wear Shaq down and that Rip would tire Kobe out. I claimed that Detroit's bench was better than the Laker's bench; I should ahve mentioned that defense wins championships. I did admit that a Piston's victory tonight would be a great one.

In the midst of this chauvinistic bravado, I just about convinced myself that the Pistons will win the series. We'll see.
Alan on 06.08.04 @ 07:41 PM CT [link]

Spyware

Byrne linked to an article about spyware.

I do think spyware has a place, though I'm not sure what. I have a propensity to buy certain items, and when such items are on sale or when a new such item arrives on the market, I want to know. Intelligent spyware can predict which items interest me and smartly tell me what I want to know without my shuffling reams of slick newspaper ads.

Perhaps the problem is that the cost of advertising is borne by the seller; thus the information is owned by the seller. I wonder if there's a market for consumer paid spyware? It would have the intelligence to pick through the ads without ever forcing personal preferences into public databases.
Alan on 06.08.04 @ 07:35 PM CT [link]

Shower Plumbing

A pet peave is when you adjust the shower temperature and, 1.5 seconds late, the temperature changes. It doesn't have to be that way.

Normally, two pipes feed the shower control(s). The hot and cold water merge in the proportion dictated by the user and one pipe carries the warm water to the shower head. But if there were two controls, two pipes cold carry the hot and cold water to the shower head where it could merge and cleanse on the user.

Users diddle the shower knobs to change the warm water temperature. The advantage of this second method is that instead of having to wait 1.5 seconds for the newly mixed water to reach the user from the controls, the user would only have to wait .5 seconds.

Neither two feet of pipe nor one second of time on a daily basis are a great cost, but, relatively speaking, I'd rather pay for the pipe once and enjoy the luxury of hyper reactive controls for the rest of my life.
Alan on 06.08.04 @ 07:30 PM CT [link]

Are Iraqis glad we invaded?

I've spoken to a couple people in the past week about whether the Iraqi people support our military efforts there. From a March media poll:

More Iraqis say the United States was right than say it was wrong to lead the invasion, but by just 48 percent to 39 percent, with 13 percent expressing no opinion — hardly the unreserved welcome some U.S. policymakers had anticipated.

As many Iraqis say the war "humiliated" Iraq as say it "liberated" the country; more oppose than support the presence of coalition forces there now (although most also say they should stay for the time being); and relatively few express confidence in those forces, in the U.S.-led Coalition Provisional Authority, or in the Iraqi Governing Council.

They're glad we came, and they don't want us to leave just yet.
Alan on 06.07.04 @ 10:22 AM CT [link]

Why We Fight

Via Zeyad. According to the L.A. Times, doctors are being persecuted in Iraq. Because of this, Iraqi doctors are less likely to do their jobs.

So if some stat pops up, "health care was better under Saddam", or "people long for SaddamCare", we can ask why. Opponents of the invasion will, of course, cite such statistics as evidence that the invasion was a mistake. I would view such stats as oversimplified; that they mask evidence that we are in Iraq for the right reasons; to help defend otherwise defenseless people and to defeat some very evil people.

I wonder how many such statistics have been trumpeted to make the invasion look wrong?
Alan on 06.07.04 @ 10:12 AM CT [link]

More Reagan

Should they choose to post any, I expect nice responses to this Opinion Journal encomium.
Alan on 06.07.04 @ 09:57 AM CT [link]

Pistons 1 Lakers 0

I admit, I was surprised but gratified to see the Pistons beat the Lakers so handily last night. I made three predictions: that it would be lower scoring than expected, that the Pistons would do better than expected, and the L.A. papers would call the game ugly.

On the first two predictions, there is no doubt. The game was low scoring, and the Lakers were not supposed to lose, much less by a double digit margin. On the third, it is not so clear. While a brief scan of major wire stories did not say the game was ugly, Coach Riley did say that his Lakers did not play their game. For me, that's close enough; the Piston's defense took the Lakers out of their game.

I did make a fourth prediction, that the Lakers would win the series. My faith in that prediction is a little shaken. The Lakers just don't play defense like the Nets or the Pacers. Let the Pistons adjust to that and start scoring, and the Lakers have an uphill battle.

On the other hand, Coach Riley pulled Shaq from the lineup for much of the second half, saying that Shaq was tired. Shaq was upset. He made 80% of his shots, getting 34 points. The Pistons did best as Shaq watched from the sidelines.

That scares me. Did Coach Riley effectively throw game one to demonstrate to the rest of the Lakers that the Pistons are dangerous? The Lakers do seem to play inconsistently, playing well some games and not so well for others. This is not the first time Coach Brown won an NBA final opener against the Lakers. He did it as coach of the Nets; the Lakers went on to win the series 4-1.

The best part is, this is the Pistons without Darko. Behold the birth of a dynasty.
Alan on 06.07.04 @ 09:32 AM CT [link]

Dr. Tabarrok on President Reagan

Dr. Alex Tabarrok at Marginal Revolution lauds President Reagan for taxes, union busting, inflation, deregulation, and foreign policy.
Alan on 06.06.04 @ 11:13 AM CT [link]

Joe Dumars

I spoke with a Bulls Cubs fan this morning. He said good things about Joe Dumars (after bitching about the way the Pistons walked off the court). (Hey, the Celtics did it to the Pistons, did the Pistons turn into a bunch of crybabies?) (Whatever.)

Anyway, Joe Dumars traded Grant Hill for Ben Wallace and Jerry Stackhouse. Later he traded Jerry Stackhouse for Rip Hamilton. Both Ben Wallace and Hamilton improved after they got here.

I wonder if he could pacify an Arabian countryside....
Addendum----------------------------------------------------------------
Oops
According to Jerry Green,

[Joe Dumars] reluctantly signed Hill and dispatched him to the Magic. Dumars accepted a 6-foot-9 journeyman named Ben Wallace and Chucky Atkins in exchange.
[...]
Used as partial barter to obtain Rasheed was Chucky Atkins, the other guy from the old sign-and-trade deal when Hill walked out.

Now, if we could only get the Wallaces to defend Iraqi pipelines....
Alan on 06.06.04 @ 02:53 AM CT [link]

NBA betting lines

Lots of cool bets to made in Vegas, according to The Detroit News' Vartan Kupelian and Mike O'Hara. I'd excerpt them, but it is way too late.

In general, I'd say that the games will be lower scoring than expected and closer than expected. The Pistons are underrated. Also, because L.A. is so much closer to Las Vegas than is Detroit, L.A. fans tend to bet more in Vegas than Detroit fans. Oddsmakers set betting lines so that no matter who wins, they make the same profit.

For example, in L.A., as many people might think L.A. will win by 8 points or more as think that L.A. will win by 7 points or less. By setting the betting line at 7 1/2 points, oddsmakers would win no matter what the score (traditionally, one bets $11 to win $10; in this case, the oddsmakers make $1 for every $22 bet). In Detroit, the appropriate betting line might be 3 1/2 points, while nationwide, it might be 5 1/2. With Las Vegas so close to L.A., the betting line would be more like 6 1/2 points.

Here, the collected national wisdom is that half the time Detroit will lose by 5 or less, or maybe even win. By taking the Detroit side of the bet, you get that 50% chance win, plus you win if L.A. wins by 6 points.

But I also favor Detroit bets because I think they are underrated. What some say was ugly offense I claim to be beautiful defense. I predict that Monday morning, L.A. papers will wonder how their team could have played so ugly.

Go Pistons. Stop L.A.
Alan on 06.06.04 @ 02:46 AM CT [link]

More Reagan Quotes

I am going to hate myself in the morning.

Time Blair rounded up some blogger quotes. It seems that Reagan made a lot of people change parties, no mean feat.

I liked the quote CurrencyLad posted in the comments:

"My idea of American policy toward the Soviet Union is simple, and some would say simplistic. It is this: 'We win and they lose.' What do you think of that?"

-- Ronald Reagan, to future National Security Adviser Richard V. Allen, 1977.

Alan on 06.06.04 @ 02:20 AM CT [link]

Flattery will, apparently, get you everywhere.

I really don't like to see this in myself. Someone threw me a compliment (6/6 2:33 am), so I checked out their site ... which I like. Here's the link to Kerry Haters (which is not as blindly political as it sounds) and his nice little Reagan post.

What disturbs me is the developing habit of linking to others after they say nice stuff about me. That's not why I should link, and they should not expect such a reward (ok, 'reward') for saying nice stuff about me.
Alan on 06.06.04 @ 01:53 AM CT [link]

Air Hockey: Space Age Technology

Via Geek Press, the latest space age research from Nature magazine:

The frictionless conditions of space are being simulated by air-hockey tables, as a new generation of intelligent robots is trained to build space stations and solar arrays.

My question: off of what will the robots bounce the girders to get them in place?
Alan on 06.05.04 @ 08:00 PM CT [link]

Reagan quotes

Google Reagan Quotes and the get lucky entry leads to this official looking page of Reagan quotes. My favorites:

Occasion:	Quote:
Republican National Convention, 1992.	When you see all that rhetorical smoke billowing up from the Democrats, well ladies and gentleman, I'd follow the example of their nominee; don't inhale.
	This fellow they've nominated claims he's the new Thomas Jefferson. Well let me tell you something; I knew Thomas Jefferson. He was a friend of mine and Governor... You're no Thomas Jefferson!
To surgeons as he entered the operating room, March 30, 1981	I hope you're all Republicans.
Speech to Britain's Parliament, June, 1982	It is the Soviet Union that runs against the tide of history.... [It is] the march of freedom and democracy which will leave Marxism- Leninism on the ash heap of history as it has left other tyrannies which stifle the freedom and muzzle the self-expression of the people.
Remarks at Human Rights Day event, December 10, 1986	The other day, someone told me the difference between a democracy and a people's democracy. It's the same difference between a jacket and a straitjacket.
Remarks in Arlington, Virginia, September 25, 1987	How do you tell a Communist? Well, it's someone who reads Marx and Lenin. And how do you tell an anti-Communist? It's someone who understands Marx and Lenin.
Speech near the Berlin Wall, 1987	Mr. Gorbachev, open this gate! Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!

Rest in Peace, Mr. President. You are missed.
Addendum----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
More great quotes in a Command Post editorial discussion.
Alan on 06.05.04 @ 07:36 PM CT [link]

Ronald Wilson Reagan, R.I.P.

Via The Command Post, President Reagan has passed away.

They've just released some DVDs about the Miracle on Ice, about the 1980 U.S.A. Olympic Hockey Team that defeated the Soviets against all odds (it was even more improbable than having the 2004 Pistons beat the Lakers). The nation was beaten down by Viet Nam, Watergate, Inflation, OPEC, Afghanistan, and the Iranian Hostage Crisis. The Russian Hockey Team was a collection of putative amateur athletes paid as professional soldiers. Actually, they trained for hockey and fought their wars in ice rinks. Hollywood's theme in these DVDs was that the hockey team lifted the spirits of a demoralized nation.

Reagan did the same thing. He said we didn't have to take slump our shoulders when facing our enemies abroad. He said we didn't have to take slump our shoulders when facing our economy. He did it before Jesse said it; he kept hope alive. He cut marginal tax rates and the economy grew. He reinvigorated the armed forces which then curtailed the commies and now astound our enemies with 'bleeding edge' technology.

He was not perfect. Taxes went up in 1986. He let a bomb scare us from Lebanon. But in the end, he did something no hockey team could.

He restored our pride.
Alan on 06.05.04 @ 07:16 PM CT [link]

BOTW lifelong goal: met.

This is better than getting my name in the phone book.

I finally succeeded in achieving a lifelong goal: I got a mention from today's Best of The Web. I forwarded the two articles about the army's stop-loss policy, linked here, to opinionjournal@wsj.com. In that email, I highlighted the 122 day difference between the Jane's article and the LA Times article. Mr. Taranto ignored my angle as well as the Jane's article. Still, I got a thank you at the end of the missive, which my simultaneously undersized and oversized ego appreciate.

Now, how to plant a link ....
Alan on 06.04.04 @ 03:54 PM CT [link]

Another 'job offer' from onlylegitworkathomejobs

Check out this job offer:

Re: Terms of Employment

Dear [FIRSTNAME],

Thank you for answering our employment screening questions. We are pleased to inform you that after careful consideration, Belk Marketing Services has decided to make you this offer of employment. This letter sets forth the terms of the offer which, if you accept, will govern your employment.

Please note, this is an exact quote, including the character string "[FIRSTNAME]".

As usual, I need to buy their guide for promotional price of $49.95, which is less than the normal $79.95.

I get most of my hits looking for the word "onlylegitworkathomejobs". Previous posts about these folks listed here. I have recieved 31 total emails from these people. Most tell me to buy the guide. A few tell me that if I want them to ignore me, to ignore them. (I ignore them, they don't stop.) One told me there are no upfront fees.
Alan on 06.04.04 @ 03:45 PM CT [link]

Tiananmen Condemnation

The U.S. House voted yesterday to condemn the Chinese massacre at Tiananmen Square fifteen years ago. The vote passed 400-1 with 33 abstaining. The sole dissent was from Dr. Ron Paul, a putative Republican from Texas.

I say putative, he is actually more Libertarian. While I disagree with his vote, I respect him for casting it. He is consistent in his libertarian views and states them openly.
Alan on 06.04.04 @ 10:48 AM CT [link]

FBI told of 9/11 method in 2/2000

Via Tim Blair, reports from NBC, AP, and Reuters.

From the AP, "In April 2000, the man, a British Muslim, went to the FBI's Newark, N.J., office and told agents of plans to hijack U.S. airliners"....

So what did the Clinton team do? Who is more culpable in the failure to prevent the 9/11 atrocities? President Bush or President Clinton?
Alan on 06.04.04 @ 08:07 AM CT [link]

Keep your cotton picking hands off Free Speech

(Sorry, couldn't help the title.)
Via Marginal Revolution, a petition to support academic freedom.

An Cal-Davis economist, Daniel Sumner, was hired by Brazil to analyze cotton prices. He determined that U.S. agriculture policies harmed world markets. The world trade organization agreed. California cotton growers are upset. California cotton growers are threatening to defund Cal-Davis. Sumner's response:

What is this, the mafia or something? Think of it as a criminal case, and one side says, 'We'll put pressure on this guy not to participate.' That's not right, is it?

No, it's not.
Alan on 06.03.04 @ 08:03 AM CT [link]

U.S. Military 'Stop Loss'

Via Blog Runner, a June 3 story from the L.A. Times about U.S. military policy to keep maintain military strength. The opening verbiage:

THE CONFLICT IN IRAQ

Troops Told They Can't Leave Army

'Stop-loss orders' keep soldiers in service if their units are set to be deployed to Afghanistan or Iraq. Officials call move 'finger in the dike.'

By Esther Schrader, Times Staff Writer

WASHINGTON — Struggling to stretch its limited ranks, the U.S. Army said Wednesday that thousands of soldiers who were scheduled to leave the military will be ordered to stay if their units are being sent to Iraq or Afghanistan.

I was getting ready to blame President Clinton for the reduction in military size, so I googled "army size" and got an article from Jane's about the same thing. Their openning verbiage:

Rumsfeld relents on increasing army size

By Andrew Koch, JDW Bureau Chief, Washington, DC

Following a sustained effort by the US Department of Defense (DoD) to keep the size of the US Army from growing, despite heavy demands of operations in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere, senior DoD officials have now approved additional forces at least temporarily.

The L.A. Times concentrates on the human cost, which is important in a microeconomic sort of way. Mr. Jane's organization concentrates on the military readiness factor, which is important in a macroeconomic sort of way.

But, unlike Jane's, the L.A. Times should have broad based coverage. They seem to be missing the big picture, that we are living in a rapidly evolving world; that we are at war with a group of inventive people determined to destroy our way of life; and that we have finite resources with which to protect ourselves. In that context, asking a few troops to stick around a few more months seems to be low cost.

Oh yeah. The LA Times article came out June 3. The Jane's article came out February 2. Jane's scooped the L.A. Times by 122 days.
Alan on 06.03.04 @ 07:32 AM CT [link]

Spirit of America

You too can help in Iraq. The Spirit of America is looking for volunteers to help:

• obtain tools (carpenter, electrician and mechanic tools) for Iraqi tradesmen;
  
• organiz school community service programs and arrange local school partnerships;
  
• get word out to your local media and organizations and Web sites and blogs;
  
• research media contacts; and
  
• research and contact potential corporate donors.
  I've condensed a heck of a lot of carefully crafted information into one long sentence, so please join me by following the link and offer to help.
  
  Alan on 06.03.04 @ 06:59 AM CT [link]

Corny expression of the day

From one of those sugar-and-spice-and-everything-nice emails that gets forwarded around, one address book at a time:
Life Is Not Measured By The Number Of Breaths We Take, But By The Moments That Take Our Breath Away!
We now return you to your irregularly scheduled rants.
Alan on 06.03.04 @ 03:34 AM CT [link]

Yay Command Post

From The Command Post leaderships' Q-and-A post:

[...]
To you value traffic over your objection to disgusting comments?
[...]
Posted by: Redneck Texan at June 1, 2004 03:17 PM
[...]
Alan: Not at all … [...] Frankly, we’re unusual in that we’re such a popular site that HAS comments … [...]

And frankly, that’s the thing that keeps me from pushing hard to eliminate them: Philosophically, I think one of the things that makes TCP unique is the ability of the reader to participate in journalism … to talk about a story, fact check it, or make it better through additional citations in the comments. Without that, we’re closer to being another syndicated news site, and further away from being open source journalism, which is frankly one of the things that I think is so cool about what’s happened here.
[...]
Posted by: Alan at June 1, 2004 04:05 PM

This is modern technology at its finest. Start with the internet where anyone can post and, through word of mouth, let the proverbial cream rise to the top.
Addendum----------------------------------------------------------------------------
From a later post:

[....] In polling the readership, though, I found that [....] Upon reflection, I came to see the issue this way: [....]
Posted by: Alan at June 1, 2004 09:27 PM

The best way to a more powerful me is to understand the power of we. He gets it, and it shows.

My gripe: I wish he'd change his name. It seems I'm not always good at sharing.
Alan on 06.03.04 @ 02:52 AM CT [link]

Go Pistons!

As much as I'd like to think the Pistons can take the Lakers in the NBA Finals, I can't. The two teams split their two regular series games before Detroit picked up Rasheed Wallace and Mike James. The Pistons play tougher defense than the Lakers are used to. But NBA teams just don't win their first time to the finals.

It looks like Darko will have to help earn his ring.
Alan on 06.03.04 @ 02:33 AM CT [link]

My Friend Alcohol, the cause and solution of all my problems

From the May 28, 2004 Ann Arbor News Police Beat:

Woman finds drunk man in her home

A 70-year-old Ann Arbor woman said she awoke early today to find a drunk and disoriented man in her home, city police said.

The woman, who lives in the 1800 block of Anderson Court, said she heard noises downstairs at 3 a.m., reports said. She said she went down to investigate and discovered a man standing there who looked confused, reports said.

The woman said she asked the man what he was doing there, and he replied, "I don't know," reports said. She said she yelled at him to get out, but he just stared at her, police said.

The woman told police she ran to a neighbor's house and called 911. When officers arrived, the man was not in the area. It appeared that he had entered through an unlocked sliding patio door, reports said.

Nothing appeared to be missing. The woman said she didn't get a good look at the man, reports said.

Alan on 06.03.04 @ 01:23 AM CT [link]

Lawyers, Tobacco, Troops, and Taxes, with Politics as an added bonus

A recent amendment to the U.S. Senate Budget bill failed, 37-62-1. The "Statement of Purpose: To express the sense of the Senate regarding legislation to impose an excise tax on tobacco lawyer's fees that exceed $20,000 per hour in order to increase funding for equipment for the United States Armed Forces."

Overpaid lawyers. Tobacco. Supporting Troops. High finance. What more could one ask? Oh, yeah. "Kerry (D-MA), Not Voting"
Alan on 06.03.04 @ 01:00 AM CT [link]

World Government?

Natalie Solent has an epic post about world government. To excerpt unfairly:

First a question for you. How do you know communism doesn't work? Because you saw it not working all through your childhood and early adulthood [....] the goddess History primly laid out several countries split into communist and non-communist sections so that you could watch one half sink and one half rise and draw appropriate morals. [...] They say that an aerial photograph of two neighbouring states in the US will sometimes show the land changing colour at the state border as clearly as on a map; the difference being no manifestation of nature but the result of differing agricultural policies.

What I fear is that a time will come when there will be no significant examples of difference left in the world. That possibility is still far off but for the first time in history the technology is in place for it to happen. Think about that. We are always being told that this or that situation is without precedent when what the tellers mean is that they dislike the precedents, but this time there really is no precedent. We do not know how human beings do a single world society.
[....]
I can imagine a future US administration deciding to differentiate itself from its predecessors by coming repentant back into the fold. Then the UN would put gradually put its warm, loving arms around the whole world, with international treaties and courts and protocols and constitutions. These bodies do so love constitutions, don't they? And the whole point of a constitution is to take some matters out of discussion. The French National Assembly has voted to embody the Precautionary Principle into the French Constitution.

Voila! If they take it seriously (always a big 'if' in France), whole vast areas of variability and innovation have been swept forever off the table in order to get one week's good publicity.

[...]

All you have to imagine is stuff like that keeps happening on a world scale.

I am haunted by the tale of the fleets of Zheng He, recounted in Guns, Germs and Steel. China's vast program of exploration, greater than anything Europe ever had, was turned off click! because of some otherwise obscure quarrel between two factions at court. The reason that there was only one switch was that China was unified.

All you have to imagine is stuff like that keeps happening on a world scale.

As Madsen Pirie says, a tax or regulatory regime does not like exceptions. If once we have a world government or close imitation thereof I think we might really see, not the end of history, but its asymptote.

A couple of thoughts.

-------------------------------

First thought. The U.S. was set up with weak federal government. Thus, the name: The United States of America. They did not want one country. They wanted thirteen seperate countries, all of them part of a United Nations type organization to handle certain enumerated tasks. Heck, the Bill of Rights was thought by many to be unnecessary; after all, no part of the constitution said the government could abridge the right to free speach, therefore, there was no need to say the government could not abridge free speech.

Then came the 14th amendment, sold as a way to end slavery. To see how that amendment expanded the pervasive role of government, read the May 21, 2004 Best of The Web item I copied in the extended comments. The 14th amendment is about sodomy as well as slavery.

The point here is that government does tend to expand over time. I question what that would mean if we had a world government.

-------------------------------

Second thought. While we may have no experience with world government, Mrs. Solent's China example comes close. In a sense, China was a world unto itself. The leadership of that closed community decided to stop learning. Their society stagnated until bam!, half a millenium later, the outside world burst their bubble. They could no longer ignore the folly of their willful ignorance.

Govenrment is ok if it protects our right to be different, not if it grants us the right to be different. With world government, the cancerous effects of enforced mass conformity would be hidden. The trick is to form a world government with truly limited powers.

Alan on 06.03.04 @ 12:09 AM CT [more..]

Free Iran praises Ahmad Batebi

According to Free Iran, "Ahmad Batebi, [is] a student leader thrown in jail for holding a bloodied T-shirt in front of reporters". They ask for help in publicizing his -- and all Iranians -- cause. According to Amnesty International,

Ahmad Batebi said in the open letter that soldiers bound his hands and secured them to plumbing pipes. They beat his head and abdominal area with soldiers’ shoes. They insisted that he sign a confession of the accusations made against him. The next day, he was thrown onto the floor, they stood on his neck and cut off all his hair and parts of his scalp causing it to bleed. They beat him so severely with their heavy shoes that he lost consciousness, and when he regained consciousness, they started their actions again, ordering him to write and sign a "confession". When he refused, they took him to another room, blindfolded him and secured his bound hands to the window bars.

During his interrogations, they threatened several times to execute Ahmad Batebi and to torture and rape his family members as well as imprison them for long terms. The investigators ordered him to confess to false allegations and under extreme duress, he signed a "confession" fearing that they would carry out their threats to him and his family.

As far as Amnesty International is aware, no official investigation has been undertaken to examine the above allegations of torture made by Ahmad Batebi.

A couple of caveats. First, Mr. Batebi was merely beaten and forced to sign a confession, he was not put in a naked pyramid a la Abu Ghraib. Second (this one serious), we can't be sure how serious his crimes were; while I trust the "Free Iran" people more than Iran's mullacracy, I'm not ready to call them impartial observers. His crime may be closer to fighting security forces and inciting riots than displaying dirty underwear.

That said, Iran is currently being run by an unpopular, evil regime. The least we can do to help Iran's freedom loving students is to highlight the regime's evil behavior.
Alan on 06.01.04 @ 06:38 PM CT [link]

Unionism at its worst

I have never liked the Michigan Education Association. The first item from this Michigan Education Digest (affiliated with the Libertarian minded Mackinac Center For Public Policy) illustrates why.

Teachers used to illegally strike in Michigan. Governor Engler stopped that by putting teeth in the no-strike law. The states largest teachers' union, the Michigan Education Association (MEA) owns its own insurance company, the Michigan Education Special Services Association (MESSA). MESSA provides great benefits to members. MESSA premiums are expensive. MESSA is secretive. And, to avoid labor disputes, MESSA is the sole provider of health insurance for public schools. Here is a Detroit News editorial. Snippets:

[...]
The majority of the school districts in this state have their health insurance coverage administered by the Michigan Educational Special Services Association (MESSA). MESSA is linked with the state's largest teacher union, the Michigan Education Association.
[...]
A few years ago, it was estimated that MESSA handled about half a billion dollars in insurance premiums from Michigan's school districts. In the mid-1990s, the insurance agency got in trouble with the state insurance commissioner when he found it had improperly retained some $70 million of those insurance premiums and had not passed them on to Blue Cross.

The insurance agency has resisted letting school districts know their own claims histories. In the past, it has argued that it has "bundled" claims records from several school districts so it could provide regional rates.
[...]

The NEA's shameless foisting of its MESSA on Michigan school districts does not help educate kids. It does help enrich unionista cronies.

But wait, there's more
I would say that all Michigan school boards, not just Grand Rapids, should stiffen their spines and stand up to the MEA. But that leads to another issue. In Michigan, school board elections are held in June, all by themselves. Very few people vote in them. So a motivated minority can sieze control of school boards by electing their minions. And no one is more motivated to sieze control of school boards than teachers unions. Thus, there hasn't been a lot of opposition to the MESSA.

But wait, there's more
Too bad, but Michigan voters ignored school boards and as a result got fleeced. Bad school boards can lead to bad schools which can lead to state takeovers which can lead to lawsuits. This is troubling. The defacto union takeover of Detroit schools gave Michiganders a choice between good civics (local boards elected solely to oversee kids' educations; it is one of my key concepts), and actually educating kids.
Alan on 06.01.04 @ 06:15 PM CT [link]

Scarce Resources

I was just going back and saw a debate between Alex and Byrne about scarce resources. I posted this link in both places, about a wager between Julian Simon and Paul Erlich.

Simon had Byrne's faith in mankind's ingenutiy; Erlich thought that we were running out of resources and, unless mankind learned to reduce, reuse, recycle, etc., we were doomed. So they bet on the prices of five metals: copper, chrome, nickel, tin, and tungsten. If Erlich was right, these commodities would become scarce, and their prices would rise. Erlich was wrong. The ingenuity of mankind won out.

But I am not convinced that all basic resources are as abundent as these metals. Alex cited oil. A more stark example would be center cut hard wood.

There are different kinds of wood. Soft wood, like pine, grows fast is is not so well suited for building. Hardwood, like oak, teak, and mahogany takes a long time to grow and is well suited for construction. Builders prefer center cut wood rather than wood from the edge of the tree; it does not warp as much.

A few decades ago, builders could go to the lumber yard and get all the low cost center cut hardwood they needed. It was cheap and well suited for the job of home construction. Now, such wood is not so cheap. Instead, builders use trusses. Trusses are softwood two by fours ingeniously assembled. Like hardwood, such trusses can span the living room ceiling with enough strength to support the waterbed upstairs. And unlike hardwood, trusses resemble a renewable resource (softwood is renewable; the metal for the connectors is plentiful).

I say this because, in my opinion, Alex and Byrne are both right. Alex is right that some resources will effectively run out. Byrne is right that it doesn't matter; we will always find a way to meet our needs.
Alan on 06.01.04 @ 05:17 PM CT [link]

Fallujah being passified

From Brendan Miniter at Opinion Journal, a piece about success in Fallujah.

In Iraq, apparently no news is good news. Two months ago everyone was talking about Fallujah. Four American citizens had been brutally murdered, and then a raging mob dragged their bodies through the streets and strung them up from a bridge. Every mosque in the city was calling for jihad, while the local police and fire departments ceased to exist. Then two days into offensive operations, the Marines suddenly seemed to halt their advance. Fallujah quickly became a metaphor for everything that was going wrong in Iraq.
[...]
Among other things, this brigade [of former Iraqi soldiers] became a liaison between the coalition and the local imams, sheiks and Fallujah city fathers. One by one these groups were peeled away from the insurgents. Now none of the mosques in Fallujah are calling for jihad, local politicians are coordinating with coalition forces in rebuilding city infrastructure--the Marines have approximately $500 million to spend in Iraq--and the Fallujah Brigade is patrolling the streets. Ninety percent of the intelligence the Marines get on insurgents comes from Iraqi sources.
[....]

Of course, according to Mike Carlie at S.M.S.U., Fallujah is not the world's only troubled city.

Field Note: A police gang unit commander said "The culture of the prison is now the culture on the street. It's spilled over because so many gang members do time then come home. The culture is '**** you. You get in my way, you're dead.' And they don't even think twice about it before they kill someone, or think about it again after they've done it."

Dr. Carlie also says that gang infested neighborhoods are characterized by:

• substandard schools (no matter how hard the teachers work);
  
• few faith institutions (several had moved to where congregants with money moved);
  
• a dilapidated business district where liquor stores and adult video shops now dominate as other businesses move to where the money is or simply close up shop due to vandalism, thefts, and a dwindling customer base;
  
• struggling social- and health-related services; and
  
• little local government involvement (the neighborhoods are neglected and have become disenfranchised).
  

I initially made this comparison because it seems that our pacifying the worst parts of Iraq seems as difficult as passifying the worst of our gang infested neighborhoods. In both cases, we have an enemy that is violent, has little regard for rights of the innocent, and cowers behind a mask of anonymity when cornered.

But what struck me was the reference to faith based institutions. Fallujah does have its Mosques. I see two related questions. 1) Is Islam a religion of Peace? 2) Can we pacify Fallujah? It seems that the answer to both questions is yes.

It also seems that the media has another way to deflect credit from our military.
Alan on 06.01.04 @ 02:13 PM CT [link]

Links Updated

I updated the links to the right, adding Byrne's Eye View and Uncensored Blog Madness. They both have lots of quick hits worthy of consideration. Um, not that my ego has anything to do with it.
Alan on 06.01.04 @ 03:08 AM CT [link]

Home Ice vs. Home Court

Which is better for the sports fan? To have one's favorite NBA team playing at home, or to have one's favorite NHL team play at home?

NBA rules are neutral; they do not favor the home team. It is better to play at home, though. Fans can help cheer a team on. And, it was said that the Celtics played better at home because they knew their parquet floor. They knew where the dead spots were; thus they knew when an opposing players dribble wouldn't bounce so high, so they knew when to go for the steal. The Celtics had an unofficial -- and unethical -- home court advantage.

NHL rules are not neutral. They unabashedly favor the home team.

• NHL rules favor the home team on face offs. The opposing team must put their stick on the ice first.
  
• NHL rules favor the home team on matchups. When there is a break in the action, after the visiting team has put their skaters on the ice, the home team is allowed to change their players.
  

It hasn't worked out that way. Via www.NHL.com, I analyzed 44 NHL playoff series from the last three years. This includes:

• all fifteen matchups from 2002 and 2003, and
  
• fourteen matchups from 2004 (the finals are still in progress).
  

Via www.NBA.com, I also analyzed 43 seven game NBA playoff series from the last four years. This includes:

• fourteen games from this year (I assume Detroit beats Indiana in game six; it includes the previously completed thirteen series; it does not include Detroit's pending upset of the Lakers in the finals, Go Pistons!).
  
• all fifteen playoff series from 2003.
  
• all seven seven-game playoff series from each of 2002 and 2001 (I omit first round series, which were best of five).
  

I could just look at the overall record and stop there.

	Win	Loss	Pct
Hockey	144	117	55.17
Basketball	153	88	63.49

Hockey teams win at home 55.2% of the time. Basketball teams win at home 63.5% of the time. QED.

But I realized that these overall records do include sweeps. I wanted to measure the effect of home field advantage on more evenly matched teams, so I broke things down by length of series.

The complete results (perhaps including unintentional transcription errors) of my study upon which this table is based are in the extended text. The summary:

	Hockey						Basketball
Series Length	Home		Away		Percent		Percent		Home		Away
	W	L	W	L	Home	Away	Home	Away	W	L	W	L
4	6	0	6	0	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	16	0	16	0
5	30	6	18	6	83.33	75.00	87.10	70.83	27	4	17	7
6	27	15	29	13	64.29	69.05	78.57	54.76	33	9	23	19
7	36	19	24	26	65.45	48.00	76.92	32.26	30	9	10	21
Total	99	40	77	45	71.22	63.11	82.81	58.41	106	22	66	47

• For example, in all the four game hockey series, the winning teams went 6-0 at home and 6-0 on the road. With a total record of 12-0, we can deduce that there were 3 such series. There were; Tampa Bay over Montreal in the second round this year, Anaheim over Detroit in the first round last year, and Anaheim over Minnesota in the third round last year. In those three series, the home team went 6-6.
  
• With similar logic, we can see that there were 8 NBA sweeps in the period studied. 3 this year, 2 last year, 1 in 2002, and 2 in 2001. This does not, of course, count any of the four sweeps of best-of-five-games series.
  
• In 5 game series, the NBA was better for the home team than the NHL. In a five game series, of course, the winner wins four and loses one. In the NHL, 50% of those loses were at road; no home ice advantage. In the NBA, 64% of those losses were on the road; yes home court advantage.
  
• What surprised me was the records for NHL series decided in 6 games. Overall, the home team went 40-44. Remember, NHL rules favor the home team.
  
• The one consistency is that home teams did better in the NBA than in the NHL. 4-2 NBA teams did better at home than 4-2 NHL teams. 2-4 NBA teams did better at home (winning 45% of the time) than 2-4 NHL teams (who won 31% of the time).
  

I'm not sure what to make of all this. NBA teams have fewer players than NHL teams; fewer players are on the roster, and fewer players play regularly. Perhaps NBA players (and refs?) are more easily swayed by crowd reactions.
Addendum----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Extended stats have been moved here.
In competative series (6 or 7 games), the home team went 105-87 in hockey for a 54.7% winning percentage; the home team went 96-58 for a 62.3% winning percentage.
Alan on 06.01.04 @ 02:33 AM CT [link]