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06/06/2004: "NBA betting lines"

Lots of cool bets to made in Vegas, according to The Detroit News' Vartan Kupelian and Mike O'Hara. I'd excerpt them, but it is way too late.

In general, I'd say that the games will be lower scoring than expected and closer than expected. The Pistons are underrated. Also, because L.A. is so much closer to Las Vegas than is Detroit, L.A. fans tend to bet more in Vegas than Detroit fans. Oddsmakers set betting lines so that no matter who wins, they make the same profit.

For example, in L.A., as many people might think L.A. will win by 8 points or more as think that L.A. will win by 7 points or less. By setting the betting line at 7 1/2 points, oddsmakers would win no matter what the score (traditionally, one bets $11 to win $10; in this case, the oddsmakers make $1 for every $22 bet). In Detroit, the appropriate betting line might be 3 1/2 points, while nationwide, it might be 5 1/2. With Las Vegas so close to L.A., the betting line would be more like 6 1/2 points.

Here, the collected national wisdom is that half the time Detroit will lose by 5 or less, or maybe even win. By taking the Detroit side of the bet, you get that 50% chance win, plus you win if L.A. wins by 6 points.

But I also favor Detroit bets because I think they are underrated. What some say was ugly offense I claim to be beautiful defense. I predict that Monday morning, L.A. papers will wonder how their team could have played so ugly.

Go Pistons. Stop L.A.